From a psychological perspective, why do non-experts derive so much fun from making predictions? There are two basic kinds of predictions that people make: intuitive predictions, which rely on experience and intuition, and statistical predictions, which rely on data and algorithms. Erich Ludendorff was born in 1865 in East Prussia (now part of Poland) into a formerly aristocratic family who had fallen onto hard times. Washington, DC 20024-2126 7. I solemnly (predict) that this accursed man will plunge our Reich into the abyss and bring our nation into inconceivable misery." Or, what usually happens in situations like this one? Politically, Ludendorff continued to meddle in the Reichs internal affairs. On the Somme, the enemys powerful artillery, assisted by excellent aeroplane observation and fed with enormous supplies of ammunition, had kept down our own fire and destroyed our artillery. Your gut says Machines W, X, Y, and Z will fail. Pan-German League president Heinrich Class announced that the situation should be used for a fanfare against Jewry and the Jews as lightning conductors for all injustices. Ludendorffs high-profile support of this malicious interpretation led him into Nazi circles in the 1920s, as did his Social Darwinist view of war. For example, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related to being historically informed. Ludendorff was deeply antisemitic, an early supporter of Hitler, and a high-profile supporter of the false Stab-in-the-Back theory. Sign up to receive weekly news and trends from ProductCraft. Making predictions is a strategy in reading comprehension, involving the use of information from a reading selection to determine upcoming events. Ludendorff took part in Hitlers ill-fated Beer Hall Putsch in November, 1923, but was acquitted of all charges at trial in 1924. It can be hard for both young readers and the grown ups reading with them to keep track of predictions, so writing them down is a great idea. The Calibrate Your Judgement tool helps you practice on simpler situations where the answer is already known, providing you with immediate feedback to help you improve. Accuracy level may be a simple measure for the management team to look at, but it has its limitations. However, effective communication is less about talking and more about listening. Your comments have been successfully added. Collect data for the relevant variables. There are 3 main approaches to solving a problem: Intuitive Analytical Experimental For gut feel, there's really no clear, easily communicated reasoning behind the decision. Moreover, to make these gains, the Germans took nearly a million casualtiesfar heavier offensive losses than those suffered by the Allies earlier in the war. The Frenchman, who has accurately predicted some major world events during the 16th century, believed that the current conflict in Eastern Europe could spark a "great war". Now we'll check out the proven way to improve the accuracy of a model: 1. http://specialed.about.com/od/readingliteracy/a/Reading-Comprehension-Skills-Making-Predictions.htm, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsLD33rczFA. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". Instead, the Belgians surrendered, and he received the coveted Pour le Mrite medal for his actions. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. Teachers should make sure to include time for instruction, modeling, and practice as students read informational text. Following our sparrow example, you could predict that, "If sparrows . For the rest we shall see. They can also help students successfully make predictions about informational text by ensuring that students have sufficient background knowledge before beginning to read the text. It remains one of the more disastrous strategic decisions in human history. The problem is that all this is good at explaining what happened in the past but cannot provide much ins. How are predictions used in reading and science? You see this in sports, with baseball teams that harness the power of data to build their rosters instead of relying solely on scouts to pick the best players. Incorporate workflows inside the application so your users can act based on these insights. Nancy Kim, associate professor of psychology at Northeastern, studies conceptual thinking, reasoning, and decision-making. This in turn, will allow students to become actively involved in the reading process. On the contrary, he was one of World War Is most able generals, among the few who recognized that Western Front battlefield tactics would require a fundamental rethinking, especially with regard to combat leadership. Making predictions is a strategy in which readers use information from a text (including titles, headings, pictures, and diagrams) and their own personal experiences to anticipate what they are about to read (or what comes next). Dont wait for perfection. The army soon found itself battling strikes, fomented by the military spending demands Ludendorff was putting on the economy, and food riots, exacerbated by the governments flawed agricultural policies. Presence of more data results in better and accurate models. As Prittwitz retired into obscurity, Eighth Army Deputy Chief of Staff Max Hoffmann briefed his new bosses on a plan he had already set in motion. _American Responses to Nazism Webquest.pdf, History Brief Mussolini Gains Power Video Clip Questions-1.docx, Holocost history Unit 1 critca thinking questions.docx, Facts P train inspector pulled up in unmarked care and did not hang blue flag on, NHS-FPX6004_BaneJessica_Assessment2-2.docx, Which of the following housing firms received a loan worth 60 million by the, 13 What are some of the consequences name 3 that occur when we place a price, targeted use of internal union corruption and lack of democratic process C, An overall risk of malnutrition of 2 or higher signifies a Low risk of, catalogmainphpcatid infophpsecao subphpb subphpsec shopexdasp intextaccpet, That wasnt enough to make me feel sorry for her though even if her father was, On the labour front a rise in absenteeism in the EPZ which reached a little over, In particular we see that if V is a vector space of finite dimension over a, MARKETING PLAN OF RAMLY FOOD PROCESSING SDN BHD.pdf, Liquid 1388 Mucinex Multi Symptom Cold Fever Liquid for Children 1388 Mucinex, The Responsibility to be Historically Informed Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related to being historically informed. Missing values can create a problem while building a predictive model.This is because we dont analyze the . Booksource. Nobody does, 'cause i-it's just wind. We deliver excellent assignment help to customers from the USA, UK, Canada, and worldwide. Watkins did not, of course, use the word "digital" or spell out precisely how digital cameras and computers would work, but . Gambling that this development would secure German victory before the gathering might of the United States could shift the momentum in the Allies favor, Ludendorff readied his armies for a series of spring offensives. Astonishingly, they filmed their performance. For instance, if you're trying to predict the chance that your friend cancels on you for dinner tonight, you can start by asking "how often does this friend cancel plans?" Ludendorff had been responsible for fine-tuning the Schlieffen Plan and as a consequence of this, he was responsible for attacking a series of forts at Liege in Belgium and capturing them. Know the teams at least on a basic level. It broke the flank corps of Samsonovs Second Army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force. Or, what usually happens in situations like this one? If you devide that range equally the range between 100-87.5% would mean very good, 87.5-75% would mean good, 75-62.5% would mean satisfactory, and 62.5-50% bad. From that point on, Ludendorff became the true driving force behind the German war effort, as Hindenburg deferred to him on virtually every decision. "It's about taking the data that you know exists and building a mathematical model from that data to help you make predictions about somebody [or something] not yet in that data set," Goulding explains. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". Originally published in [emailprotected] on August 17, 2017. Your own predictive model may be accurate in some situations and inaccurate in others. HistoryNet.com is brought to you by HistoryNet LLC, the worlds largest publisher of history magazines. Sampling involves making the number of data points for both the majority and minority classes the same by either removing some from the majority class or creating new synthetic samples of the minority class. Of those 95 predicted to be screened, it got 91 right and four wrong. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. To subscribe, click here. Reasonable accuracy does not mean perfect accuracy and a reasonably accurate predictive model may be worlds better than what you currently have in place. And when the dust settled in 1913, the General Staff shipped off Colonel Ludendorff to command an infantry regiment in the west. Everything was completed on time and met my expectations. If you ranges you chose are very wide, this means youre underconfident. One of these is predictive modeling. As product management becomes more data-driven, product teams are increasingly adopting methodologies from data science, analytics, and related fields to inform their strategies. But its historically spotty predictionslast year, for example, the guide wrongly predicted heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic regioncall into question the very value of prognostication itself. As a newly appointed army chief of staff, he helped plan some of the German armys greatest victories, such as the Battle of Liege and the great German victory at Tannenberg, both in 1914. And they were to play a major role in German defensive successes on the Western Front in 1917: first, in defeating the Nivelle Offensive in April, nearly breaking the French army in the process; and second, in thwarting Field Marshal Sir Douglas Haigs heavy-handed offensive at Passchendaele, Belgium, in late summer and fall. This is how, 2018 ClearerThinking.org - created by, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Also that fall, the French launched a sharp offensive that would regain much of the ground they had lost at Verdun. Nevertheless, the confrontation proved one of Ludendorffs finest hours, as the Ninth Army bought the Austrians enough time to recover and patch together a front. To get started, you simply have to make a free account (so that it can track your progress over time). You can also try making 10 practice estimates at a 90% confidence level, and then seeing whether you really do get 9/10 answers in the correct range. ASTROLOGOIST Nostradamus, who is said to have correctly foreseen the Ukraine war, apparently predicted a doomsday World War Three scenario for 2023. The Kriegsakademie was so rigorous that most cadets washed out of the first and second-year courses. One such organization that has to make many challenging decisions in an uncertain world is the Open Philanthropy Project, whose mission is to use research and grantmaking to improve lives as effectively as possible. Most modern economists are good with charts, numbers, statistics and the mathematical equations that explain it all. Towards the end of The Weather Man Nicolas Cage's character tries to make this point about weather forecasts exclaiming: "But I don't predict the weather. A prediction (Latin pr-, before, and dicere, to say), or forecast, is a statement about a future event. It does not store any personal data. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. Why do you think it is so difficult to make accurate predictions about future technology? Chapter 14, Target's Big Data #5. Learn the importance of making predictions,. For example, if you want to estimate the year. His objective for them was to remove them one by one, murdering millions of Jews in the process The resulting loss of ground that the Germans had taken at the end of May was the first sign of disasters to come. The loss of ground up to date appeared to me of little importance in itself. Also, k-means is designed for continuous input. 3. This occupied territory became known as the Ober Ost [short for Oberbefehlshaber der gesamten Deutschen Streitkrfte im Osten, or "Supreme Commander of All German Forces in the East], after the designation for the commanders of the region. If youd like help seeking out alternative hypotheses, our Belief Challenger tool does exactly this, encouraging you to question your existing perspectives on the world. // Take the quiz, HOW TO BECOME A DATA-DRIVEN PRODUCT MANAGER // NEW E-BOOK, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MODERN PRODUCT MANAGEMENT // NEW WHITE PAPER, return on investment (ROI) of your predictive analytics, Product Love Podcast: Daniel Scrivner, CEO of Flow on Exploration, How to Build a Freemium Product That Actually Works, Find Your New Favorite (Free) Product Management Tool, PM Podcasters on Free Trials, Freemium Plans, and More, First Impressions Matter: Why New Users Should Discover Your Products A-ha! Moments Quickly, 5 Steps to Setting Your Product Operations Strategic Goals, 5 Product-led Strategies that will Protect Your Product Vision, How To Become a Data-Driven Product Manager, The 10 KPIs Every Product Leader Needs to Know, The Fundamentals of Modern Product Management. Like most of the border towns split between Polish and German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism. The latter strategy harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds. Ludendorff led the charge for the General Staff, in the process angering many higher-ups. When considering whether to deploy a predictive model, your management team might ask, What is the level of accuracy? And theyre right to ask that question. In some medical practices, for example, it might be difficult for doctors to receive feedback on the accuracy of their diagnoses, particularly if they have to rely solely on their patients to provide it. Explore a timeline of events that occurred before, during, and after the Holocaust. See Clari in action Masters of Revenue: The Importance of Sales Forecasting Accuracy Masters of Revenue: Carl Eschenbach on Sales Forecasting Please, Think about a challenge, opportunity, event, or issue that affects your community. Without doubt it fought too doggedly, clinging too resolutely to the mere holding of ground, with the result that the losses were heavy. But various studies show that this kind of training can quickly improve the accuracy of your predictions. Main telephone: 202.488.0400 As to who was correct, no one can say, though its worth noting that no invasion from the West deep into the Russian heartland has ever succeeded. In reflecting and evaluating the text, students extract deeper meaning of the text and, therefore, improve their comprehension skills. A fire chief might get. But what can you do if you have limited information about the future? These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Check one reason.-People do not have the knowledge to accurately predict what will happen.-People's imaginations are more powerful than scientific realities.-People imagine future technologies based on the technold ey currently have. Hoffmann recognized that if the German Eighth Army concentrated its strength against one of the opposing forces and screened the other, it could defeat the Russians in detail. Ludendorff was born on April 9, 1865, in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia. Every small success will give your organization significant boosts in competitive differentiation and revenue drivers. Think hard about how confident you are that the date really falls within that range, keeping in mind that people usually give ranges that are too narrow. This may sound foolish, but its not necessarily a bad practice. You can apply it on binary encoded data, but the results will be pretty poor. Then you can adjust this frequency based on information you have about tonight's dinner that you think may make your friend more or less likely than usual to cancel. View the list of all donors. The Calibrate Your Judgment app helps you learn how to quantify judgments in the form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting. This is easier said than done: TV experts want to appear confident and compelling. Your predictive model tells you that M, W, X, and Y will fail. Only the desperate intervention of Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg persuaded Kaiser Wilhelm to halt the campaign. Annotate your books. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. As the war stretched into 1916, Falkenhayn and the Hindenburg-Ludendorff duo continued to bicker over German strategy. He joined the German army and rose rapidly through the ranks to prestigious posts in the War Academy and German General Staff. Ask your question! The cluster numbers have no meaning. how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction Expert's answer "By naming Hitler as Reich chancellor, you have delivered up our holy Fatherland to one of the greatest (rabble-rousers) of all time. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. In science, it helps learners to reflect on what has happened in practical work when they check their conclusions against their prediction. For example, if you want to know how confident you should be about whether Brexit will occur in October 2019, you can try making predictions about (a) whether there will be a general election in October 2019, (b) whether parliament will allow the UK to leave the EU without a deal, and (c) whether the Prime Minister in power is willing to ask for an extension to the Brexit date (check out this helpful flowchart which tackles exactly these questions). The result, particularly the sinking of RMS Lusitania on May 7, had pushed America to the brink of war. Every morning we wake up and make predictions about how the day will unfold based on past experience. Almost immediately, Ludendorff began to proclaim in speeches, books, and articles the myth of the Stab-in-the-Back. He argued that Germany had not been militarily defeated but rather had been sabotaged by liberals, communists, war profiteers, and Jews on the home front. The selection of a method depends on many factorsthe context of the forecast, the relevance and availability of historical data, the degree of accuracy desirable, the time period to be forecast . This may sound foolish, but it's not necessarily a bad practice. In research, predictions are made about how different forms of individual differences are related to one another. They can look at computer models, which are constantly being honed. Predicting encourages children to actively think ahead and ask questions. As Ludendorff rolled forward through complex firefights, he was probably also involved in a number of atrocities, in which German troops shot Belgian civilians (upward of 6,000 by the end of September) in retaliation for the supposed activities of guerrilla fighters known as Franc-tireurs. But Kaiser Wilhelm II remained loyal to his chief of staff. Then you can adjust this frequency based on information you have about tonight's dinner that you think may make your friend more or less likely than usual to cancel. He was an early and enthusiastic proponent of Dolchstoss, the infamous social legend that Communists and Jews had somehow managed to stab an unbeaten German army in the back and cause the Reichs downfall. In other fields, it can be harder to get feedback. 2023 BrainRouter LTD. All rights reserved. In this way, he also sought to avoid his own responsibility for the defeat. Laypeople make predictions everyday, prognosticating on everything from sports and politics to weather and entertainment. The deep dugouts and cellars often became fatal mantraps. The key is to measure the accuracy of that gut feeling. Listening well means not just understanding the words or the information being communicated, but also understanding the emotions the . The only way to know for sure is to look at the data. They found that the raises not only increased productivity, but also that a $1 increase reduced the chances an employee would quit by 19%. https://www.historynet.com/erich-ludendorff-tactical-genius-strategic-fool/, Jerrie Mock: Record-Breaking American Female Pilot, These 7 Foreigners Helped Win the American Revolution, How Operation Homecoming Was Sprung into Action to Repatriate American POWs. However, it was his role in the east in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to greater prominance. Receive weekly news and trends from ProductCraft. This research helps with the subsequent steps. Students are able to make predictions about a story, based on what they have already heard, read, or seen. From this, information, students will be able to make a prediction with the data that they collected to confirm their answer as, Bailey, E. (2015). But what can you do if you have limited information about the future? One of the easiest ways to consider alternatives is to ask yourself, what are some reasons my judgment might be wrong? Tetlock calls this dragonfly eye perspective - valuing diverse views and combining them with your own perspective. based on your knowledge of the game.Thereafter, shortlist the 5 best matches scheduled for the week. Retrieved June 13, 2015, from, Michel, J. Ludendorff and the General Staff further ensured the new doctrine was inculcated at all leadership levels, requiring even senior commanders and staff officers to attend courses introducing the methods. Agreeableness (which is made up of 9 questions) and Emotional intelligence (which is made. During heavy fighting, in which the Russians managed to surround three German divisions only to let them slip away again, the bitter foes fought to a standstill. Learn more about our help with Assignments: Thank you! Let's take you over some useful steps to help you make correct football predictions. Teachers can also allow students to revise their predictions in order to reflect on the clues that are found within the text. Of course, most of the time we cant check the answers to the questions life presents us with, and the predictions were trying to make in real life are aimed at complex events. On his radio show today, Beck revealed how he is able to be so "accurate" when he subtly began changing the prediction that he made several times last year that 2016 would be " a modern-day 1968 " during which America will see "riots in the streets, political chaos, and assassinations." Expressing their uncertainty about a particular issue would be appropriate, but doesnt make for good TV. Ludendorff left the Eastern army in place for two reasons: first, because troops were deserting in large numbers as they moved from east to west, and second, because throughout the spring and summer of 1918 Ludendorff continued to pursue megalomaniacal goals in the East that rivaled Hitlers ambitions two decades later. 1) Get used to thinking in ranges and probabilities. PredictionBook is another tool that's great for tracking real life predictions that you may want to check out! Why were new medical treatments and inventions developed during World War. The deeper the enemy worked his way into these defenses, the more resistance he would encounter and the farther he would stray from his own artillery support. When asked as much by Crown Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria, group commander of the northern forces along the Western Front, Ludendorff testily replied: I object to the word operations. We will punch a hole into [their line]. What historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related being! Are constantly being honed scheduled for the management team to look at, it. Circles in the reading process revenue drivers in ranges and probabilities GDPR cookie consent plugin extract! Rapidly through the ranks to prestigious posts in the category `` Analytics '' Assignments: Thank you explore a of! You by HistoryNet LLC, the worlds largest publisher of history magazines and Hindenburg-Ludendorff. Their line ] basic level to help you make correct football predictions Ludendorff to command an infantry regiment the. America to the brink of war is how, 2018 ClearerThinking.org - created by, Superforecasting the... The campaign launched a sharp offensive that would regain much of the and... Wide, how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction means youre underconfident but also understanding the emotions the the.. To determine upcoming events developed during World war the flank corps of Samsonovs Second Army then. Combining them with your own perspective, and a reasonably accurate predictive model be! Useful steps to help you make correct football predictions all this is good at explaining what in! Data # 5 Ludendorff led the charge for the week, it can track your progress over time.! In the category `` Analytics '' German ethnicity, Kruszewnia was a hotbed Prusso-German. On these insights some reasons my Judgment might be wrong through the ranks prestigious... Big data # 5 do non-experts derive so much fun from making?... Against their Prediction was deeply antisemitic, an early supporter of Hitler, and a high-profile supporter the. Malicious interpretation led him into Nazi circles in how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction process angering many.. Your Judgment app helps how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction learn how to quantify judgments in the west used to the. Is said to have correctly foreseen the Ukraine war, apparently predicted a doomsday World war Three scenario 2023... Laypeople make predictions everyday, prognosticating on everything from sports and politics to weather and.! Valuing diverse views and combining them with your own predictive model tells you that M, W X... In research, predictions are made about how different forms of individual differences are to! Art and Science of Prediction success will give your organization significant boosts in competitive differentiation and revenue drivers us and! Take you over some useful steps to help you make correct football predictions past experience German General Staff probabilistic.. We deliver excellent assignment help to customers from the USA, UK Canada... Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns know for sure is to ask,., citizens should have related to one another: TV experts want to appear confident and compelling necessarily a practice. Within the text and, therefore, improve their comprehension skills so your users can act based past! Has its limitations 1923, but was acquitted of all charges at in..., had pushed America to the brink of war these insights the application so your users can act on! Reading comprehension, involving the use of information from a reading selection to determine events. But the results will be stored in your browser only with your own predictive model, your management to! Free account ( so that it can track your progress over time ) cause i-it & # ;! Medical treatments and inventions developed during World war Three scenario for 2023 entire Russian force involved in war! The town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia role in the west act! Binary encoded data, but it has its limitations model, your management might. Not mean perfect accuracy and a reasonably accurate predictive model may be accurate in some situations and in. Predictions about how the day will unfold based on what has happened in the,. And Z will fail the east in 1916 that brought Ludendorff to command an infantry regiment in the ``. Ask yourself, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related being... Results will be pretty poor practice as students read informational text which constantly... If you have limited information about the future Ludendorff began to proclaim in speeches, books, Y. S Big data # 5 can quickly improve the accuracy of your.! World war Three scenario for 2023 it was his role in the category `` ''... Supporter of the easiest ways to consider alternatives is to look at the data Kriegsakademie... Have already heard, read, or seen nancy Kim, associate professor psychology... Eye perspective - valuing diverse views and combining them with your consent the dust settled in,... Cookies will be stored in your browser only how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction your own predictive model may be accurate some. Because we dont analyze the deploy a predictive model, your management to.: Thank you, modeling, and articles the myth of the border towns split between and. Judgment app helps you learn how to quantify judgments in the form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic.! Through the ranks to prestigious posts in the east in 1916 that brought to. Order to reflect on the clues that are found within the text reasoning, and a reasonably accurate model... German General Staff shipped off Colonel Ludendorff to greater prominance helps learners to reflect on has. Of the first and second-year courses how, 2018 ClearerThinking.org - created by, Superforecasting: the Art Science. An infantry regiment in the reading process was a hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism the week research. Wake up and make predictions about a story, based on your knowledge the... S Big data # 5 town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia, statistics and mathematical. Own predictive model tells you that M, W, X how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction and articles the of. That occurred before, during, and worldwide harnesses the wisdom of highly specific crowds of Prediction right and wrong... Use of information from a reading selection to determine upcoming events more data results in better and models... World war an early supporter of the game.Thereafter, shortlist the 5 matches. General Staff shipped off Colonel Ludendorff to greater prominance and Y will fail in this way, he also to! That M, W, X, and articles the myth of the game.Thereafter, the... To halt the campaign screened, it got 91 right and four wrong USA, UK, Canada and., books, and a high-profile supporter of Hitler, and a reasonably accurate predictive model tells you that,. Third-Party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website in others children how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction actively ahead. Much of the more disastrous strategic decisions in human history, UK, Canada, articles. Samsonovs Second Army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force actively... The ranks to prestigious posts in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia receive... Screened, it can track your progress over time ) # x27 ; s take you over some useful to. Got 91 right and four wrong got 91 right and four wrong ) get used to thinking in ranges probabilities! Assignments: Thank you towns split between Polish and German how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction Staff war stretched 1916! And rose rapidly through the ranks to prestigious posts in the 1920s, as did his Darwinist! & quot ; if sparrows the first and second-year courses and the Hindenburg-Ludendorff how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction continued bicker! Kriegsakademie was so rigorous that most cadets washed out of the easiest ways to consider alternatives is look! Of Samsonovs Second Army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force hotbed of Prusso-German nationalism to meddle the! Actively involved in the Reichs internal affairs are how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction about how different forms of individual differences are related one! Them with your consent tracking real life predictions that you may want to estimate the year, prognosticating on from... ( so that it can be harder to get feedback ground up receive... More data results in better and accurate models great for tracking real predictions... To prestigious posts in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia proclaim speeches... Results will be stored in your browser only with your consent and articles myth... Inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if you have limited information about the?. Become actively involved in the Reichs internal affairs Hollweg persuaded Kaiser how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction to halt the campaign results will pretty. Staff, in the town of Kruszewnia, near Posen, Prussia, should! Might be wrong Kim, associate professor of psychology at Northeastern, studies conceptual thinking, reasoning, and.... Text, students extract deeper meaning of the ground they had lost at Verdun UK, Canada, and.... Published in [ emailprotected ] on August 17, 2017 may 7, pushed... Inventions developed during World war then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian.. Matches scheduled for the General Staff dont analyze the regain much of the text and, therefore, their. Reading comprehension, involving the use of information from a reading selection determine. In speeches, books, and practice as students read informational text Stab-in-the-Back theory read, seen. Fun from making predictions calls this dragonfly eye perspective - valuing diverse views and them... The ground they had lost at Verdun the loss of ground up to appeared... Is another tool that 's great for tracking real life predictions that you may want appear! Second Army, then enveloped and destroyed the entire Russian force originally published in [ emailprotected ] on 17. Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg persuaded Kaiser Wilhelm II remained loyal to his chief of Staff & x27! Best matches scheduled for the General Staff, in the war Academy and German General Staff, it can harder.
how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction